Beware of the Bulldogs: Improved Fresno State Team Could Test UNM After SDSU Loss
Fresno State freshman Deshawn Gory celebrates after Fresno knocked off Colorado State 79-69 on Jan. 13. Photo courtesy of Fresno State Athletics.
Looking to shake off a tough road loss at San Diego State, the UNM men’s basketball team returns to The Pit on Wednesday night to face a surging Fresno State squad that has quietly become one of the Mountain West’s most improved teams.
The Bulldogs are 9-9 on the season and 3-4 in conference play, but currently sit at No. 140 in both the NET and KenPom. Despite the Quad 3 metrics, they are exceeding expectations under second year head coach Vance Whalberg after last season where they went 6-26 overall and 2-18 in league play.
Fresno State started this season 6-2 but suffered a six-game losing streak the whole month of December. Three of those losses were by 5 points or less, including a one 1-point loss to fourth place Nevada.
“I’m just disappointed that we gave away that Nevada game,” Fresno State head coach Vance Whalberg said on Another Night in the Mountain West on Jan. 17. “There’s five games this year that we know we should have won and we could have one.”
The Bulldogs are winners of three of their last four, and are coming off back-to-back wins against Colorado State 79-69 and Wyoming 63-60 at home.
“I felt like if we got one or two wins, I really felt like (the kids) would believe in what we’re saying and what we’re doing and they’ve done that.”
Fresno State is led by redshirt senior guard Jake Heidbreder, (6-3) who is 3rd in the Mountain West in scoring at 17.3 points per game. Heidbreder has taken more 3-point shot attempts than anyone in the Mountain West with 128 total on the season. While he only shoots 31%, he shoots an average of seven 3-pointers per game, meaning he’ll knock down at least two if he’s getting to his season average. He also broke an FSU record for most consecutive FT’s made against Colorado State on Jan. 13.
The straw that stirs the drink for the Bulldogs is six-foot junior guard Zaon Collins. Collins fills up the stat sheet with 12.9 points, 4.7 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, but exited the Wyoming game with an injury and it’s unclear if he will be 100%. He is not listed on Fresno State’s public availability report.
“Zaon went out with a leg injury at the end of the game,” Whalberg said. “I’m just hoping that we can have him. If we don’t obviously its going to be a little bit tough… If we have all the pieces, I expect us to have a hard-fought game there.”
Fresno’s other double figure scorer is freshman forward Deshawn Gory (6-6). Gory has scored in double figures in Fresno’s last 5 games, including an impressive 16 point and 14 rebound double-double in a 71-52 loss to San Diego State. Gory was named Mountain West Freshman of the Week last week.
The Bulldogs are coming off a rough shooting performance against Wyoming where they went 3 of 18 from the 3-point line. Outside of Heidbreder they have two other capable shooters in junior guard David Douglas Jr. (6-5) who shoots 37% and senior forward Cameron Faas (6-7) who shoots 35%.
Fresno State has made a big jump defensively from last year’s team. After finishing No. 212 in Ken Pom’s defensive adjusted efficiency last season, they are No. 72. They also force 14 turnovers per game and score 17 points off turnovers. Seven-foot center Willson Jaques provides 8.6 rebounds per game and anchors Fresno State’s interior defense.
Keys to the Game
Pound the Ball Inside: This Fresno State Defensive Efficiency map tells you what you need to know:
Photo courtesy of CBB Analytics.
Fresno State allows teams to shoot 70% at the rim and nearly 50% inside the paint, which are both above the average of all college basketball teams. Outside of Jaques, Fresno has no rim protection and UNM’s guards along with Tomislav Buljan and and JT Rock should have a big night scoring the basketball inside. “We always want to attack the basket,” Eric Olen said. “Obviously that was something we struggled with with San Diego State…understanding opponent personnel, this is a game we can really attack different lineups, maybe we need to be under control and use a lift fake…We try to have the preparation and discussion about what our attack should look like in a lot of different facets of our offense, but around the basket relative to their rim protection is one we’re always focused on.”
Win the Turnover Battle: The Lobos had 17 turnovers against SDSU. Fresno State is just as good defensively in turning teams over and they convert those into nearly 20 points per game. Buljan and Albury had 12 of UNM’s 17 TO’s, and they need to be better against Fresno State. “Spatial awareness, alertness, end of drive decision making, understanding space, attacking space, when we stay out of traffic we do a much better job of that,” Olen said. “We do need to control the things that we can to try and limit those as much as possible.”
Better Bench Play: UNM’s bench shot a combined 3 of 16 from the field against the Aztecs. JT Rock and Tajavis Miller are bringing great defense and some rebounding, but UNM is playing shorthanded and is more dynamic when the bench contributes to the scoring.
