Lobos Must Deliver Dominant Win Over Air Force to Keep NCAA At-Large Hopes Alive
First 4 In, or Next 4 Out?
With six regular season games remaining, UNM men’s basketball is squarely on the bubble of the at-large NCAA tournament picture.
The Lobos are walking a razor’s edge in the hunt for an at-large bid, where even a single misstep—especially against an Air Force (3–22) squad visiting the Pit on Tuesday at 7 p.m.—could send their tournament hopes tumbling.
“Everyone understands where we are,” Eric Olen said. “We try to take the same approach. I always say the same stuff. I think this is a stretch where it really is important because its not even just one game, like we want to be possession focused.
“We want to focus on every possession and then move onto the next and try to live in each moment, and try to win each sort of rep and possession.”
UNM enters the game as large 27.5 point favorites and is predicted by KenPom to win this game 86-57. UNM defeated Air Force 91-49 in the first meeting on Jan. 10 and dominated after trailing 5-0 in the first minute and a half.
Air Force has been completely non-competitive during Mountain Conference play going 0-14 with an average margin of deficit of 26 through 14 games conference games.
Head Coach Joe Scott was suspended indefinitely on Jan. 17 amid an investigation into the treatment of cadet-athletes, prompting interim coach Jon Jordan to step in and implement some schematic changes.
“They’re doing some things differently,” Olen said. “A little less zone defense. A couple different actions. They have another frontcourt player who I think is playing pretty well for them who wasn’t… I don’t know if he was hurt or just wasn’t playing. There’s certainly some differences.”
Freshman forward Riley Dering, standing at 6-foot-9 and two hundred and thirty pounds, was the missing piece Olen referred to. He’s averaged 6.5 points and 3.5 rebounds through 8 games, but is coming off 13 points and four rebounds in Air Force’s 93-63 loss to Fresno State.
Photo of forward Riley Dering dribbling the ball against San Diego State on Feb. 5. Photo: Air Force Athletics.
Air Force has shot the basketball better from the 3-point line the last two games. In a 91-74 loss to Colorado State on Feb. 10, Air Force knocked down a season high 12 3-pointers and were only down 6 points at half.
One player UNM will have to mark from the 3-point line is freshman forward Lucas Hobin. Hobin has set the all-time freshman record for 3-pointers this season with 58 and is coming off a 26 point performance on Saturday.
Freshman guard Kam Sanders has been Air Force’s most consistent player throughout the season averaging 11.6 points per game and scoring in double figures 17 times this season.
Outside of Sanders and Hobin, however, the Falcons lack the offensive depth to consistently threaten opponents.
This game is more of an opportunity for UNM to fine tune some things on the defense end. While the Lobos locked GCU down for the first 16 minutes of the first half on Wednesday, UNM gave up a lot of shots at the rim on straight line drives from GCU’s playmaking guards and lost a twenty-point lead.
Air Force’s offense is not built to beat you off the dribble, but ball movement and constant cutting are key.
UNM will have the opportunity to set the tone defensively get some steals, and get out in transition. The Lobos forced 16 steals in the first meeting at Air Force and should hope to get opportunities to run in transition to get everyone involved on offense early.
Bottom Line
There are only three more opportunities to watch this team play in the Pit, starting with tonight against Air Force. Expect the Lobos to get back into he win column at home by re-establishing its defensive dominance and getting multiple guys scoring in double-figures against the overmatched Falcons. Bring a gently used Teddy Bear.
