The Pit West Awaits: Can Eric Olen’s Lobos Conquer the Final MWC Gauntlet?
The bracket is set.
Flights are booked and The Pit West awaits a dozen hostel fan bases.
The Mountain West Conference Tournament is arguably one of the best mid-major conference tournaments, and at least one of the most notable.
The conference has sent four-plus teams to the Big Dance in four consecutive seasons (2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025), including sending a record six teams in 2024.
But what awaits this year - in what is the final season with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, and San Diego State (moving to the PAC-12) - could be what many are predicting: a one-bid league.
New Mexico, who won the regular season title last year, was essentially a few possessions away from advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, a destination the program has never reached before.
But Tom Izzo’s #2-seeded Spartans snatched victory away from an upstart Donovan Dent and Richard Pitino led Lobo squad late in the second half.
Fast forward to current day where Eric Olen replaced a departed Pitino and turned over an entire roster in just over a three-month timespan.
Jake Hall may not be the athletic finisher that Dent was, but he is a savvy craftsman well beyond his years as a leader and is one of the best shooters in program history - and he’s only a freshman..
What this team has accomplished in such a short amount of time has been nothing short of remarkable and has surpassed any expectations that Lobo Nation held following the exodus of last season.
But here we are again.
In the thick of it all.
Following the loss at Utah State Saturday afternoon, the Lobos have earned the #3 seed in the MWC Tournament and will play the winner of the #6 Boise State/#11 San Jose State game on Thursday night.
They’re not the favorite, but they’re also not the team anyone is looking forward to playing either.
This team is tough, battle tested, and resilient. They've proven they can win on the road in tough environments (VCU and GCU) and have come back when they've been down (Fresno State).
In a league tournament where teams cannibalized each other in conference play all season, this year might be the year where the tournament has been the most wide open and up for grabs.
Anyone from the #1 seed Utah State through the #8 seed UNLV, could legitimately win it all. UNLV sweeping the season series against Utah State proves that.
March basketball tests durability, grit, and strategy - especially in specific matchups in win-or-go-home scenarios.
Execution, minimizing mistakes, and coaching adjustments are critical now, because every possession matters.
In order for UNM to win and advance, here are some key elements they’ll need to exploit.
Rediscover Their Defensive Identity
For most of the season, the Lobos have relied on their defense to disrupt opponents and create turnovers. Statistically, UNM is a top 40 team in Defensive Efficiency in Ken Pom, but the Lobos were a top 25 team through the first 10 games of the conference season. UNM has given up over 80 points four times over the last 10 games, including 94 and 86 points to Utah State, 91 points to Boise State, and 82 points to Colorado State. All of these teams have exposed UNM’s switching man-to-man defense and drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, and have cashed in on wide open 3-point shot attempts due to UNM having to over-help in the paint. In those four losses, teams are shooting a combined 39% from the 3-point line while also shooting a combined 122 free throws, showing that teams have been able to build leads and get to the free throw line against the Lobos. UNM needs to tighten up its pick-and-roll ball screen coverage to not allow crafty ball handlers to pick them apart and force help, and they need to locate shooters and close out quicker to prevent wide open 3-point shot attempts that have been their achilles heel through the second part of the conference season.
Avoid Slow Starts
UNM has dug itself in some early holes through the 6 games of the conference season. Recently against Fresno State, Nevada, San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah State, the Lobos have found themselves down early, more often than not by double digits, and they’ve had to climb their way back into the game. The Lobos fell short against Nevada, CSU, and Utah State while they were able to complete comeback wins against Fresno and SDSU. It’s win or go home in Las Vegas, and so UNM needs to find a way to set the tone early and avoid playing from behind if they want to endure a long 3-game stretch and win three games in three days.
Get Balanced Scoring on Offense
Lobo fans love when Jake Hall lights it up from long distance. The freshman has shattered the Mountain West Conference record books and has been UNM’s most consistent offensive player who ranks 7th in the MWC in 16.3 PPg and firstt in 3PT FG made at 99. But UNM is at its best when it gets three to four players, including Hall, in double figures. Who will it be in the Mountain West Conference Tournament? Buljan had a monster game against SDSU with 24 points and 18 rebounds and another double-double against Utah State, but he still struggles at the free throw line. Uriah Tenette, Deyton Albury, and Luke Haupt have all scored in double figures down the stretch in conference play, while JT Rock and Tajavis Miller are coming off good games against Utah State. The Lobos need better movement in their offense to generate advantages and open shots for other scorers so they don’t become one-dimensional with Hall in the MW tournament.
Wildcard: The ship has sailed on Chol, rip the chains off Tajavis Miller.
Push has come to shove and Eric Olen must make the decision on how much Antonio Chol will be utilized moving forward. Since early February, Chol has seen his production fall off a cliff. He went from a regular double-digit scorer to barely getting his name in the game book. Over a nine-game span, Chol has only crested double-digit scoring twice (Air Force 20 and GCU 12) and hasn’t scored a single point in three of the last four.
His minutes have also sharply dropped - intentionally, more than likely.
In the last game at Utah State, Chol only saw 10 minutes of action - seven minutes in the first half and only 3 in the second. He started both halves. In those minutes, Utah State had a 22-4 scoring differential - they jumped out to a 10-2 lead in the first half and then sprinted out to a 12-2 run in the second half. The slow starts over the last few games could prompt Olen and Co. to consider a line change.
Enter Tajavis Miller. Although his stats are based on a small sample size, he’s proven he could be a double digit scorer, surpassing double figures 6 times this season. He’s also coming off his most impactful game, making 5-6 threes and putting up 16 points at Utah State in limited minutes.
If Chol continues to start and see his minutes drop, it may pave the way for an opportunity to exploit Miller’s shooting ability.
